Timing the market for your SIP investments?

Many of us keep waiting for that right time to invest.

A popular stock-market adage is Time in the market is more important than timing the market’. It may be a popular principle but unfortunately not many observe it in practice. Many people based on the basic discussions, newspaper articles or just their basic reading believe that they understand the trends of the market and start timing the market to make investments.

The curious thing about market timing is that the market almost unfailingly moves in the opposite direction to what you would expect. If you buy shares in a company thinking that ‘this’ is the right time, you are appalled by the fact that the stock starts to fall just after you buy it. Similarly, if you sell out your shares in a company because you have a strong gut feeling that it’s going to collapse, you find it racing ahead of just about everything. It must have happened to the smartest of us.

Timing the investment in Mutual Funds

If you think you are immune to this behavior just because you invest in mutual funds rather than directly in stocks, you are mistaken. Mutual funds investors frequently try to time their systematic investments in response to the market’s ups and downs. When the market is falling, they stop their SIPs. When it is rising, they increase their SIP amounts. This invariably backfires.

SIPs work best when the markets are volatile. When the markets are high, you buy fewer units of your mutual funds through SIPs. When the markets are down, you buy more units for the same amount. This enables you to average your investment cost over time. But if you stop SIPs when the markets are down, you miss out on lowering your total investment cost. And if you increase your SIP amounts when the markets are on the rise, you keep averaging your overall cost upwards.

Now you may say that the solution to this problem is to do just the opposite: stop with SIPs when the markets are rising and increase the SIP amounts when they are falling. Unfortunately, timing the market in this manner is just as unfruitful. First, it is counter-intuitive. Many investors will have difficulty in carrying through their decision to invest when the markets are down and sell when they are up. And second, you can never really know how long the market may keep going up or falling. All in all, it’s quite unproductive to time the market.

How SIP Works to make the most of the market trend

When the market goes down – you get more Mutual Fund units
When the market goes up- you get lesser Mutual Fund units
Hence, the SIP helps to average the cost over a period of time and makes the most of our money. We may not always know that the market is down now, we should buy more or otherwise, SIP is automatically taking care of that for us.

The beauty of SIPs is that by definition they prevent you from timing the market. SIPs are about discipline. You decide an amount and a frequency, which in most cases is monthly. Then you keep investing in the mutual fund of your choice, irrespective of where the market is. Of course, you can increase your SIP amount yearly as your pay increases but then invest it evenly till the next revision. Since the markets are volatile, you will naturally benefit from the power of rupee cost averaging, which will increase your returns.

Wealth Cafe Actionable – As we have said, SIPs is an easy way to invest your money and it on its own makes the most of the market trend. Once you have started SIP, just keep reviewing your asset allocation occasionally and let them be.

Leave a comment



CONTACT US



Wealth Cafe Financial Advisors Pvt Ltd is a AMFI registered ARN holder with ARN -78274.

Wealth Cafe Financial Advisors Pvt Ltd is a SEBI registered Authorised Person (sub broker) of Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd with NSE Regn AP0297087003 and BSE Regn AP0104460164562.

 

Copyright 2010-20 Wealth Café ©  All Rights Reserved