
'Be greedy when the times are fearful and be fearful when the markets are greedy'


'Be greedy when the times are fearful and be fearful when the markets are greedy'

Hello fellow investors
In one place, where investors are planning to invest more money because there is a downfall in the market, there are some investors who are really worried and are asking us if they should sell their existing investments in Equity Mutual Funds/Equity stocks, book their losses and try to move on.
For the ones who are checking their portfolio every day and abusing their stars for investing in Equity, please read through.
Equity investing was always about 'Long Term - Goals' for more than 3 years.
Don't forget the reasons for which you started investing in the first place.
Think Equity - Think Long Term
Your Asset allocation and goal setting will always be the answer to all these questions.
How does it help to invest in Equity for a long duration?
The way to manage market risk in Equity is by investing for a long period of time.
Historical data from the Sensex proves that if you stay invested in Equity for a longer period your probability of loss reduces. Analysis of BSE Sensex data for the past 29 years shows that the probability of loss diminishes as the investment tenure exceeds 5 years. Data shows that investment for a period of 1-year duration on the first trading day between 1990 and 2018 created a loss probability of 25%. The probability of loss goes down further to 4.55% when the investment tenure goes up to 7 years. The benefits of long term investing are clearly visible as the investment tenure grows beyond 10 years and above.

(this graph & numbers above have been taken from business today article-https://www.businesstoday.in/markets/stock-picks/analysis-why-you-should-be-a-long-term-investor-in-equities/story/267408.html )
In the above graph, you can see that as your number of years of investing in equity increases, your probability of loss reduces.
Having said this, one must always check the quality of shares and mutual funds that they have invested in to ensure that they do not fall under the exceptional cases of this analysis.
Further, note that the analysis presented here is based on historical data, so it is not a true predictor of future outcomes. However, we can gather from this analysis that even with the lack of ability to forecast the future, by investing with a long term horizon, an investor is able to better withstand the detrimental effects of volatility, market downturn and bouts of recession, and achieve a positive ROI.
Hence, if you are planning to sell only because you are worried about what is happening with the markets right now, you should look at your goals & asset allocation and decide accordingly.
Don't try to be speculative right now with the market; just stick to the core values of your investing, do Asset Allocation and long-term investment planning.

Hello Investors
We believe that our first email in this chain would have given you direction on how you should go about investing in current times.
Some of you were asking us if they should invest more money in Equity right now? Is this the Big Sale we were all waiting for and should we start investing? Will the market fall more so should we wait or invest now?
No one can tell you with certainty whether we have reached hit rock-bottom. Every time one is thinking it cannot go further down, the markets are reaching another lower circuit.
'You can never predict what is going to happen with the markets as that is not in our control. What is in our control is how we react to the market and take actions accordingly.'
You must keep a note of the below mentioned before you start investing all your money into Equity:
1.Always have an Emergency Fund (at least 4 times your monthly expenses) invested in risk-free investment options.
I cannot emphasize enough on how important it is to have that emergency fund in place, especially in times like these. I do not intend to scare you but I am sure everyone is an expert in their fields and are aware of how the near future looks like. Hence, even before you start investing ensure that your emergency fund is enough to help you sail through the worst-case scenarios in the coming months.
Keep some surplus money with you before you go all investing in Equity right now.
2.Have your Health Insurance and Life insurance in place.
With the current pandemic situation, it important to prioritize our life and health. You must have these insurances to ensure your family has something to fall back on. Also, where there is no security about the future, it is not the smartest decision to just rely on your company's health insurance. It is advisable to have one for yourself and your family members. You can read more about it on our blog.

3.Do not forget the goals and reasons for whichyoustarted Investing in the first place.
Remember our entire discussion from the workshop on how to Invest.
For short term goals - less than 3 years - Invest in Debt (Risk-free Investment options)
For long term goals - more than 3 years and beyond - Invest proportionately in Debt and Equity based on your Asset Allocation.
Debt Investments acts as a cushion when the Equity markets are volatile.
Note: Once your long term goal (more than 3 years) becomes a short term goal (you reach closer to that goal), redeemed/ sell off the equity investments and shift the same to secured debt investments so that any change in the equity market while attaining your long-term goal does not impact your investments.
Now do your Asset Allocation that shall determine how much money you should invest in Debt & Equity in the current market scenarios. Your asset allocation will help you invest based on your risk profile and sleep peacefully even where the markets are being volatile.
First-time investors should also invest based on their Asset Allocation and not invest 100% in Equity.
Remember that it is not the stock that determines your exact return from portfolio but your asset allocation which determines over 90% of the return.
This is probably a good time to open your goal- working sheets (shared during the workshop) and review your portfolio.

Tough times call for tough decisions! Well for us, it is about utilizing our time at home as much as possible and evaluating the action plan what to do now! With COVID 19, the world financial markets are also giving investors quite a scare. While we are all sitting at home and doing our bit to avoid the spread of COVID 19, we at Wealth Cafe decided to share more information on what you as an investor could do to manage your money better.
'Investing is not about avoiding the risk but managing the risk to make maximum returns possible'
Investing Rule 101 - High Risk = High Returns & Low Risk = Low Returns
Never forget the Rule of Investing.
Only after you have understood and digested this fundamental Rule of Investing that you should read further.
How should you Invest?
- Know your Risk Profile (How much risk can you bear)
- Invest in financial products that match your risk appetite by doing Asset Allocation
How to do Asset Allocation?
- We have attached the asset allocation table based on your Risk profile to help you understand how much you should be investing in debt & equity. Further, we believe that you all remember the Risk profile Questionnaire you took in the Workshop.

- A simpler method is to use your age to determine your asset allocation. If you are in the age bracket of 25- 35 years, invest 30% in Debt and 70% (100 - 30) in Equity. The rationale here is that the younger you are the more risk you can take as you would have a longer investment horizon and have a higher risk-taking appetite. While this appears to be a simple method, this is a crude method and risk profiling is the best way to arrive at your personal risk profile.
What Next?
Once you have determined your investments into Debt: Equity-based your Risk profile. Ensure that you maintain your Asset Allocation Ratio.
For Example:

This is how you begin your investing journey.
Now, given the current volatile markets, if after a month, Equity falls further down (which we are not sure of!), you must do Asset Allocation again.

This action of checking your investments and selling/buying as per your asset allocation is known as re-balancing your portfolio.
How often should you re-allocate/re-balance your portfolio?
You must re-balance your portfolio where your asset allocation varies by more than 5% from the desired Asset Allocation ratio.
How does this help?
By sticking to this rule-based allocation, all sentiment-based investments can be kept aside and you end up buying equities when they are cheap and selling them when they are expensive.
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